MyDD :: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever

Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever

by KathyM, Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:25:58 AM EST

Obama is pulling away.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with his largest lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 40% (see recent daily results). Obama leads 61% to 30% among Men including a thirteen-point advantage among White Men. Obama leads 84% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a seven-point edge among White voters. Among Democrats, Obama leads by four. He holds a much healthier lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.

Caution should always be used before reading too much into a single day's results(see video commentary on long-term trends). However, this is only the second time that Obama has ever reached the 50% level of support and just the second time since the March 4 Primaries that his support has moved more than three percentage points in either direction from the 45% level.

As for Clinton, this is the lowest level of support she has earned since the contest for the nomination became a two-person race. It will take several more days to determine whether this signals a shift in the race or is merely statistical noise. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

New polling released today shows that Obama has opened a twenty-three percentage point lead in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 85.3 % chance to win the Democratic nomination.

Obama also leads McCain by 10% in the Markets in the eventual winner.

Source-http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/daily_democratic_president ial_primary_tracking_polling_history

Tags: Obama, Rasmussen, National Poll (all tags)

Permalink :: 37 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 0)

Continued shows at 51% bodes very well for November.

A PROUD Hopium user!

by xodus1914 on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:37:27 AM EST

Except, its based on lies.. (none / 0)

One of his biggest lies is that his 'consumer driven healthcare' will offer people more choices than they have now. What good is a choice if you can't afford it? Or if it fails to protect you from costs when you re sick and least can afford them? of if it prevents you from seeing a doctor or getting a drug when you need it, making you still sicker in the long run?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_dr iven_health_care

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%

by architek on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 3)

Yes right up until HRC clocks BO in PA and then his numbers will go down again. And when HRC wins KY and IN his numbers will do down again. The problem with BO is NE and KS and MS are all done and he has to run against HRC in democratic states and he doesnt really do so great there.

david

by giusd on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:41:47 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 1)

Yep, like Illinois, Washington DC, Maryland, Minnesota... but hey, I won't let the fact that expanding the electoral college map = more chances to win bother ya.

;)

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:45:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: (2.00 / 2)

Exactly. National polls will change dramatically after PA.

by americanincanada on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:46:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

yeah (none / 0)

we heard that story before.
It was called the Ohio & Texas Hillary Momentum...never panned out much

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 02:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

Yeah, he did so poorly In Minnesota and Washington and Wisconsin and Connecticut and Hawaii and Maryland and all those other Democratic states that he doesn't do so well in.
And do you really think Obama will take a hit after a Penn loss? Everyone already expects him to lose there. And he didn't take much of a hit from losing Texas and Ohio - so why should this be any different?

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wisconsin's a swing state. (2.00 / 1)

Just because we keep electing Russ Feingold (I love my senator!) doesn't mean we're anywhere near solidly Dem. Bob LaFollette's legacy is still alive and kicking in his home state, but so is Joe McCarthy's. The past two elections, we've gone blue by fewer than 10,000 votes...less than 5000 in 2004. (Oh, and we elected Tommy Thompson to four terms as governor, so that should say it all.)

Not that this in any way diminishes Obama's victory here (if anything, it makes said victory more heartening), but if people take Wisconsin's leaning-Democratic status for granted, we risk losing the state in November.

Wouldn't it be nice if there were no rhetorical questions?

by Elsinora on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 02:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wisconsin's a swing state. (none / 0)

Point taken. I guess some states appear bluer than they really are - like Oregon and Maine and, as you point out, Wisconsin.

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:21:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

KY and IN are Democratic states? Since when?

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

Does it bother you that your'e basically lying I mean what is the difference between IN and KY vs. NE and KS, last I checked they're all red states

by Socraticsilence on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 2)

kathy, did you see SUSA Penn. today?

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:47:28 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (1.40 / 5)

Dismiss and distract, TexasDarlin, thats KathyM's motive with this diary. I am sure she did see the SUSA poll, but you see, KathyM is an Obamabot - any evidence that her candidate may not be winning and she dismisses and distracts. I'll be reminding her of this diary once Hillary wins PA. We'll see what happens to Obama's "lead" after that.

by Misty Mountain Maggie on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (1.50 / 2)

Oh, his lead will be perfectly fine; for it is a lead in Pledged Delegates, which are used to pick our nominee, which matters; and Clinton will not be able to keep up with him in that metric.

The day-to-days always fluctuate; a win in PA will no doubt put Clinton a bit higher for a while, same as the wins in OH and TX did. But the numbers will not change, and she will not catch up, and will not be the nominee.

by Cycloptichorn on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:59:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

troll rating for "obamabot" bullshit (2.00 / 0)

if you have arguments, make them. this "hillbot" or "obamabot" bullshit is just personal insults in place or arguments.

EVERYONE should troll rate anyone who uses EITHER term.

the time to rise has been engaged.

by catchaz on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 0)

Resorting to name calling is a banable offense Maggie.

by lion king on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:15:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 0)

TexasDarlin,

Either SUSA is proving it's Muster in PA with this poll or it's going to be debunked as not the gold standard.

the Q Poll today showed continued tightening, which feels right.

With Hilary's problems I can't see how she's closing.

Personally, I think SUSA is mortal. I think their Oregon Number is low by 5 points and their PA number is off by 10 points... they've goofed a few this year so far.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:55:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 2)

actually, kathy, not really. SUSA is the #1 most reliable pollster for this year's election.

GO HILLARY!

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

True, but... PPP has also undercounted Obama's final margin in all but one state this year.

So you've got strength vs. strength right now. Which poll is right and which is way off?

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:08:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

They've been the most reliable by some metrics, but they're middle of the pack at best by others, also note that they were way way off in some Obama wins (most notably MO, but also in VA and WI I believe).

by Socraticsilence on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:04:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice threadjack. (none / 0)

You folks just can't tolerate bad news, can you?

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 01:58:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice threadjack. (2.00 / 1)

We 'tolerate' bad news very well when it happens.

What we don't 'tolerate' any longer are brass knuckle swings followed by a generous outpouring of salt by folks who actually might want our support in the fall.

It's a shame that folks who could possibly benefit from the knowledge that 'we' (the target audience of such 'bad news') are going to be needed later on just can't resist nor can they refrain from gloating.

It's like all of you have suddenly taken on the personna of a Bob Johnson.

Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?

by emsprater on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You know what? (none / 0)

I'll concede the 'you folks' thing. I hate it when it's done to me - 'you Obamabots are all the same and here's my list of grievances' - and I shouldn't be doing it, even in the face of an obnoxious threadjack littered with the usual panoply of insults and petty sniping.

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:23:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 1)

One has to wonder just how much impact the MSM handling of the story about the death due to lack of $100 has to do with the new numbers. I wonder how it will play now that the real story is out, and the MSM handling of it has been showed to be flawed, there was no 'lie' in that Clinton revealed the story exactly as told to her.

Chances are, it played a part in garnering more support for Obama, but the truth will not reverse the numbers, because like most MSM lies that are often repeated by Democrats in efforts to denigrate the opposing candidate, they become 'reality', even if not 'truth'.

Shame.

Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?

by emsprater on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:52:33 AM EST

Re: Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 0)

The issue never had anything to do with was she relating the story as told to her, the issue was that there were problems with the story. The person had insurance and got care and she never went to the clinic that wanted $100 from her because she assumed that they would demand it. The issue, for me, wasn't even Senator Clinton's fault. It was her staffs fault for not properly vetting the story. There are many tales of woe with this nations health insurance industry, why use a story that could not be confirmed? Why not use one that could be instead? That to me is the issue, and it remains the issue with the new revelations about it.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 1)

Why am I not surprised at all by the response.

You might as well just come out and state: 'it matters because we who support Obama can make political hay out of it. It doesn't matter that the facts of the story as related to Senator Clinton are no longer in question, nor that there was a perception by the deceased that she did have to have $100 up front to obtain treatment at her local facility, and it matters not even that that perception likely caused the death of the woman and her unborn child. It just matters that we can hit Hillary about the head with it. It helps our framing of her as 'liar' and helps to improve our numbers in the polls.'

Again, shame.

Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?

by emsprater on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 0)

Excuse me? I don't hold Senator Clinton at fault and I don't have any intention of making political hay out of it. My sole problem with the whole issue is that her staff failed in their job to properly research and vet the story. This remains a fact so maybe you should stop attributing motives to my actions.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lots of terrible healthcare situations.. (2.00 / 1)

tell me how Obama will change them..

here are some examples..

http://www.latimes.com/features/health/l a-fi-insure9nov09,1,7218397.story
Health insurer tied bonuses to dropping sick policyholders

http://www.latimes.com/features/health/l a-fi-healthinsure-sg,1,3627886.storygall ery
LA Times: Previous insurance rescission coverage

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%

by architek on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lots of terrible healthcare situations.. (2.00 / 0)

I have told you how, several times in fact. He will enact a system that does not allow discrimination based on pre-existing condition or illness and that provides subsidies such that everyone who wants or needs coverage will be able to get it regardless of income or situation.

I have asked you repeatedly how Senator Clinton's plan actually becomes law which you fail to answer. To me a "better" plan that fails to become law is not better at all since it helps nobody.

Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.

by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 01:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 1)

It'll be the same thing that happened with NAFTAgate. Candidate is accused of lying, tells in large part the truth, MSM makes hay with it, it swings some voters, truth comes out, MSM doesn't cover it much.

Of course the difference is that Clinton tried to reference the debunked NAFTAgate story in talking about the (non-)demotion of Mark Penn, and it was a huge Clinton campaign talking point running up to Ohio, whereas the Obama campaign hasn't run much with the $100 story at all; this has just been the MSM piling on.

We're still trying to get people to understand that there was nothing to the NAFTAgate story, and it's much more factually relevant to the election than the $100 story. For better or worse, you're probably right, it's going to stick, even though there's almost nothing there.

No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!

by Texas Gray Wolf on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stop rubbing it in!!! (none / 0)

I'm going to cry!

by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:05:36 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

Rasmussen released a poll moments ago that is more like the others showing the PA race tightening. It shows Hillary 48% Barack 43%.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_ democratic_presidential_primary

I would say the SUSA poll is an outlier.

AnnMarie

by wiscogirl101 on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:19:42 PM EST

I'd be hesitant to label SUSA the outlier. (2.00 / 1)

Much as I'd like that to be the case, SUSA has a significantly better record in this race than Rasmussen. It seems pretty safe to give SUSA more weight than Rasmussen in consideration at this point.

Wouldn't it be nice if there were no rhetorical questions?

by Elsinora on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 02:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (2.00 / 1)

I am only interested in the polls of Obama v McBush.

Or Clinton v McBush of that matter. I'd still take either one and be happy to win the White House.

But this sort of primary polling only incites outpourings of hatefulness, some seen here, but so bad at dKos re the dead woman story that I logged off last night and promised myself to take a week or so off. Whew.

by Woody on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 12:32:49 PM EST

Whatever! (2.00 / 0)

Folks,

Cherry-picking individual polls is a waste of time.

Week by week, the partisans for each candidate select the most favorable polls while dismissing the least favorable ones...sometimes reversing the praise/criticisms of the prior week!

I am sick to dang death of this stuff, and have been even while Obama is gaining momentum. I no longer care about primary polling, and am now more concerend with the GE. I suggest we ALL adopt that mindset.

by a gunslinger on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 01:41:53 PM EST

It's actually not (none / 0)

his biggest lead ever; he's been up higher, in other polls, like Gallup :-)

The reason this is significant is that it's now been sustained over two weeks or so. What we're seeing are two things: Democrats solidifying around him as our nominee, and an increasing rejection of Hillary Clinton.

Outlier polls from PA, where the race has narrowed and the dynamics favor Obama as well, don't change this. If I were a Hillary supporter, I'd be getting ready for disappointment.

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 01:57:21 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Obama Achieves Biggest Lead Ever (none / 0)

One day closer to the fat lady singing. I can hardly wait.

by jwolf on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 03:12:33 PM EST

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